bkc56 Report post Posted January 25, 2007 Now that the adjusted Harvest Medallion break rate (from 5% to 3%) has been out for a while, it's time to start collecting some statistics and see if the new rate is low enough or not. The requirements are the same: the medallion must be at least a break-even value (in additional gold and harvest experience blessing) or people will not use it. Of course there's no value in having items in-game if they aren't used so it's important to get the break rate adjusted to an appropriate value. I decided to allocate two harvest medallions to this experiment. Most of this was with harvest level 99 (although the last bit was at 100). Here are the results of testing: Harvest Medallion 1 Fruit: 105 Tree-Shrooms: 145 Cotton: 9070 Turquoise: 2566 Mother Pissed: 30 Random Stop: 15 Radon Pouch: 13 Gold: 14 for 1980gc Bee Sting: 12 Teleport: 12 Cavern Wall: 10 Broken Picks: 6 Blessings: 6 for 24,320 Harvest Medallion 2 Fruit: 116 Cotton: 7650 Turquoise: 1067 Mother Pissed: 10 Random Stop: 9 Teleport: 8 Cavern Wall: 5 Broken Picks: 4 Gold: 4 for 450gc Blessings: 4 for 19,730 Radon Pouch: 3 Bee Sting: 3 In this thread Harvester Medallion a number of relevant numbers are give. Entropy puts the value of a medallion at 6K. I know some have sold for 12K (but the demand is falling off due to the break rate so that's may not be realistic any more and 10K may be more appropriate). I estimate experience/gc at about 3/gc and CelticLady puts it at 5/gc. This is all fuzzy, but let's assume 8K for the medallion value (half way between 6K and 10K) and 4exp/gc. That would put a very rough break-even point at 32K per medallion. The gold helps a little (especially on my first medallion). The savings in picks is in the noise level as far a value calculations go. Based on these rough calculations, both of my medallions were a net-loss (although not a bad loss). I hope others will post their experiences with the 3% break rate. My experience says it's still to high but we need more data to get any level of statistical significance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mufossa Report post Posted January 25, 2007 (edited) Well you're quite lucky, i had no such luck..162 turquiose harvested TWO med's broke (1) blessing for 2147 and (2) gold for around 200 total.first break was due to a radiation pouch and second teleport nexus, in between mabye 4 other random events to stop me occured total (counting both meds). Edited January 25, 2007 by mufossa Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cycloonx Report post Posted January 25, 2007 Yea you have pretty much luck lol. I only had 2 blessings with my first med, now I didn't have a single blessing Only 250gc... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hex Report post Posted January 25, 2007 Nice work on the stats collecting bkc, commendable work. I'm guessing Ent can track number of meds made, and number destroyed thru the server. If the numbers are quite low, that would indicate very little use, at which time he can make whatever adjustment, if he deems it necessary. Personally, I'll devote my EL time/gc to something other than harv meds. The stats just reinforce what I had decided earlier. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chosen Report post Posted January 25, 2007 (edited) From what I've seen some people are luckier with them than others, I think I might buy one when I am able to play again, and post what stats I get off mine here. - LiquiD. #Edit - Name added, lol. Edited January 25, 2007 by Chosen Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Atlantis Report post Posted January 26, 2007 1. I think that this item needs to balanced very carefully. 2. I don't think its the % breakage chance that needs to be adjusted as much as the effects. Look at what has happened so far: When the chance was lowered by 2%, the price was raised by around 2k (because there is more demand) If you make them break more, the price will get lower because fewer people will want to use them (bad for everyone...harvesters don't get effect and crafters make less/no money) If you make them break less, more people will want them, and the price will rise temporarily, and then will decrease because few new ones need to enter the system. Future changes should be changing the effects of them rather than the % break. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hex Report post Posted January 26, 2007 :bows to the wisdom of Atlantis. Good idea. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bkc56 Report post Posted January 26, 2007 Look at what has happened so far: When the chance was lowered by 2%, the price was raised by around 2k (because there is more demand) I would be interested in how you determined this. The only price information I've seen is that they don't seem to be selling for 12K anymore, the top prices seems to be around 10K (and I'm not even sure they're selling at that). That would appear to be a price drop, not an increase. But my information is very limited which is why I'd like to know how you came up with a price increase. If you make them break more, the price will get lower because fewer people will want to use them I agree. If they aren't worth the cost because of the break rate, people will stop using them. If you make them break less, more people will want them, and the price will rise temporarily, and then will decrease because few new ones need to enter the system. I don't agree the price will drop. No one has suggested they won't break so there will always be some demand. They'll still break and need to be replaced. The difference is that if the break rate is reduced to a point that they become more desirable to use then demand will go up. With more people using them, there will be continued demand even with a lowered break rate. Future changes should be changing the effects of them rather than the % break. I disagree. If people are still breaking them on their first or second hourly harvest (as the above posters stated) then the break rate is still to high. I think it's much easier to adjust the break rate until they're use is a net-positive than to try and increase their effect hoping to get something good before it breaks (becomes to much of a gamble on luck then). But the bottom line is still that Entropy has only said the break rate may be further adjusted if needed. The point of this thread is simply to present some facts about the 3% break rate to hopefully justify some further adjustments of the rate (down that is). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CelticLady Report post Posted January 26, 2007 (edited) 1. I think that this item needs to balanced very carefully. 2. I don't think its the % breakage chance that needs to be adjusted as much as the effects. Look at what has happened so far: When the chance was lowered by 2%, the price was raised by around 2k (because there is more demand) If you make them break more, the price will get lower because fewer people will want to use them (bad for everyone...harvesters don't get effect and crafters make less/no money) If you make them break less, more people will want them, and the price will rise temporarily, and then will decrease because few new ones need to enter the system. Future changes should be changing the effects of them rather than the % break. You make very good points, Atlantis. However, from my observations of market, at 5% break it advertised around 10-12k. Now since the 3% break rate the price has lowered to 8-9k, not increased as you mentioned. I am not on all the time and perhaps don't have a full spectrum of pricing to go by. That is just the price trend I have observed. BTW, I don't have as thorough stats as bkc56 has kept on his meds, but I'm still on my first one since the break rate was changed. I only wear it during the xp portion of the hour. It has so far lasted 15 harv rounds of approximately 120 harvests each. 4 xp blessings thus far totaling 15,840xp and 0gc. (I received this med. free as a gift.) EDIT: 1/27/07 I'm still on the same med. It hasn't broken yet. Once again, I only wear this during the harv xp portion of the hour, that is the only time you can receive an xp blessing from what I understand. Anyways, now I have had a total of 5 xp blessing totaling 22,520xp and 0gc. I have used it while harving flowers, coal, iron, turquoise and silver. I'll edit this again when it finally breaks with my totals. Edited January 27, 2007 by CelticLady Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MagpieLee Report post Posted January 26, 2007 (edited) it was 10-12k because it was still new and without proper statistical testing like bkc did. People simply didn't know it broke that much. Also, people were overcharging because they want to get back as much dosh as they could from the expensive books needed to make the item (and its ingreds). Add to the fact that bot owners set them at around that price too, I'm not surprised that after a few days, the price 'settled' to around 8k and hopefully will go lower! Edited January 26, 2007 by MagpieLee Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chosen Report post Posted January 26, 2007 Bots sell them for 8k now, just need to know which Bots, as I keep a eye on teh bots ;P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
conavar Report post Posted January 26, 2007 maybe a break rate of about 3% is right and its what they break on the needs to be adjusted.maybe they would be better if they only had a chance to break on Radon damage and collapse damage Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Atlantis Report post Posted January 26, 2007 maybe a break rate of about 3% is right and its what they break on the needs to be adjusted.maybe they would be better if they only had a chance to break on Radon damage and collapse damage Basically the same thing as having it break on all current and make it 1.5%...I think thats way too low. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mufossa Report post Posted January 26, 2007 Well, i decided to try once more, and once again my 10k didnt make it past 200 turquoise , so 30k spent on meds (2) blessings 300gc , and a whole lot of dissapointment.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MagpieLee Report post Posted January 26, 2007 Bots sell them for 8k now, just need to know which Bots, as I keep a eye on teh bots ;P yer prices take a while to settle down. After people realise that in the end, its simply just not worth it. vs the current ingreds cost Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ghrae Report post Posted January 26, 2007 Well, i decided to try once more, and once again my 10k didnt make it past 200 turquoise , so 30k spent on meds (2) blessings 300gc , and a whole lot of dissapointment.... I know Entropy has said that events rates vary based on WHAT you harvest with. Have you had better luck on other harvestables? Different ores? Plants? etc? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bep Report post Posted January 26, 2007 As a crafter I spent a whole day making only 10 of that medallions. 5 are broken so far. I sold a customer 12k gc and he returns afer 1 hour to buy another one, because it was broken. And my observations is, it is not worth money or time to makes those things. You got very little crafting experience with this medallion. It is more u boost ur alchemy experience by mixing essences and making bars. The last one break after update (with 3% chance). I got only 2 blessings and 2x gold. Before it was 1 blessing per medallion. I think BKC is lucky with his 4 blessing per medallion. This will be a dead item after a while. Suggestions: - The harvester medallion should decreae 10x MN or cave hits, bee stings etc... then u dont have change the 3%. - Breaking rate should be like 0,5% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cycloonx Report post Posted January 27, 2007 My next med broke, I made 720gc with it (not even 1 blessing ) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mauriciom Report post Posted January 27, 2007 (edited) WTF I used 2 meds... 1st only with turq... I was able to harvs a lot... like 10k of it.... BUT!!!! NO BLESS AND ONLY 200GC!!! I was lucky that i did all the work to make the items and ask a friend to did it, bc spending 8-12k for 200gc... god 2nd i was MUCH MORE LUCKY 500gc <--- pro gc!!! and 2 bless (10k total)... I get 6k per fluffy so for 8-12k GC i can but 1k hes and kill 333 fluffys... IDEAS [*] = RATE OF BREAKING, -1% OF GETTING BAD EVENTS, +2% OF GETTING GOOD EVENTS, = RATE OF GETTING STONES [*] = RATE OF BREAKING, 20x exp+gc, 0.5% RATE OF GETTING STONES [*] = RATE OF BREAKING, WHEN ITS BREAK YOU GET SOMETHING SPECIAL A PRO BLESS(+4K) PRO GC(+1K) STONE(ANY)? [*] LESS RATE OF BREAKING Edited January 27, 2007 by mauriciom Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ghrae Report post Posted January 28, 2007 During the 3x harv day, I had 6 blessings on a single harv medallion (5830, 5240, 4680, 6630, 6310 & 3530). Even better yet, there was an unknown effect and since the day was 3x xp and the medallion gives 10x on blessings, I gathered roughly 97k total xp on just the blessings. All of that on one harv medallion, hitting turquoise once an hour for the full 120 xp gained harvests. I still have the medallion as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The_Piper Report post Posted January 28, 2007 Bought another one to participate in the good day for harvesters. Got 1 blessing around 3k XP, loads of walls, pouches, broken picks and after 3 or 4 hours it was destroyed by a collapsing wall. Of course, the next event i got after that, was finding a bag of gold, of course. For me, from my personal point of view, this medallion sux! And another 8k gc down the edge for nothing..... Piper Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Evangelina Report post Posted January 28, 2007 Another one bites the dust..... that is 2 medallions for me and only about 500gc total, with no blessings on either. And of all things broke both harvesting cotton, imagine that I agree is alot of work and effort for very little return. Although I am certainly glad I put the effort into making rather than buying, when I finish with what I have on hand, won't put any further effort into this medallion, unless something more positive comes about in the game with it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LadyReni Report post Posted January 29, 2007 I bought another one to test after the break rate was lowered.. even worse than the first time : 0gc, 0 blessings Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Peach Report post Posted January 29, 2007 bought one and testing it right now ( i only use it for fruits for hour xp ) and i will edit this post or make new one when it breaks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mufossa Report post Posted January 29, 2007 Well Once again, on "3x" exp day i had 5 meds , (0) bless 200gold and they didnt make it past 3rd hour, btw i only havrested during the first 120 ore for exp...it seems that the ammount of rare events break he medailon.. mabye the rate should be lowered to take into account the fact that their are ALOT of rare events... i have spent 80k or more on meds and reaped no reward close to 80k ....i find this VERY counter-Productive Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
