A Change in Success since the Server Move?

[milesp]

Since the server move I think I'm seeing a trend towards more failures. For me I've noticed it most on the rare items. I make CoL's, and generally have an 80/85% success rate. Since the server move I have a 25% success rate(1/4).

 

I've seen an alcher lvl 75 fail 2/3 hydro bars, and an ELE with an enrichment stone. All of this within the last 24 hours.

 

Has anyone else seen increased failures?

[Ghrae]

Tuesday night I made up 100 Glacmor rings. Typically I get about 93-94%. But I failed 5 in the first 20 and overall ended up with 86%, well below my average.

[shallara]

Note: this is not about fussing or bitching about fails, but rather posting factual numbers of higher than usual fails since the server move. (fyi)

 

*eeps, not meant to be directed at anyone, simply a reminder for future posts*

Edited September 28, 2006 by shallara

[Gohan]

Ever heard about bad luck?

 

-Blee

[peeper :)]

MN has been much nicer to me since update

[shallara]

Numbers and facts please, thats too vague

 

Member of my guild got 7 ELE out of 3500 lifes, without the artificer perk

Edited September 28, 2006 by shallara

[milesp]

Ever heard about bad luck?

 

-Blee

 

Ever hear about posting only posts applicable to the topic at hand? Your post has no bearing here. Simply looking to see if there is actually a trend or not. Posts like yours on this thread are irrevelant, unnecessary and break forums rules by not staying on topic.

 

Please note. I'm not moaning or complaining in this thread. The failure/success rates seem to have been altered since the server move. I'm trying to confirm or disprove this.

[Cycloonx]

Numbers and facts please, thats too vague

 

Member of my guild got 7 ELE out of 3500 lifes, without the artificer perk

 

What's so strange about that? I made about 5 once in 3k

Edited September 28, 2006 by Cycloonx

[larrystorch]

I've made about 300 steel and 100 bars since the change and have been getting about 10% critical fails, which is average for me. (location: SRI cave)

 

I've made about 800 fe and have gotten one EFE from that batch. I lost about 3. Except for the EFE, the loss rate is average for me. (location: SRI sto

 

Random harvesting events SEEM to have increased, but without actually studying the number over a time period, it's purely a subjective observation on my part.

 

Edit: added locations if it matters

Edited September 29, 2006 by larrystorch

[Happy_G]

i got 2 ELE's within 100 LE's but other than that i havent noticed any difference

[RallosZek]

No noticable change for me. 990+ srs/1000 as usual. Slightly better todays batch, 957 srs, 2 emps in 960 ingreds.

[Gohan]

Ever heard about bad luck?

 

-Blee

 

Ever hear about posting only posts applicable to the topic at hand? Your post has no bearing here. Simply looking to see if there is actually a trend or not. Posts like yours on this thread are irrevelant, unnecessary and break forums rules by not staying on topic.

 

Please note. I'm not moaning or complaining in this thread. The failure/success rates seem to have been altered since the server move. I'm trying to confirm or disprove this.

 

Fact is, that indeed, my post MAY sound very stupid, but its a fact that this can be related to just having some bad luck. Sometimes I think I seem to fail more then usual also. But thats just me.

 

AFAIK, there haven't been any changes made in the data of success/failure, so face it, this might just be a case of bad luck.

 

-Blee

[SCIPIOGOD2]

I agree with blee. Even if your average is a bit low, you can't expect to be at that average all the time. Nobody's perfect...

Edited September 28, 2006 by ELVARG

[The_Knight]

Ive seen a bit of alch change, I usually fail 1 out of 10 steel bars (Alch noob)

I have been failing 1-4 now, since update

,Knight

[Guest Dragami]

i got hit by mn 1 time in 2500 silver... broke 0 picks.... the next 2500 silver i got hit 3 times and broke 1 pick thats way below avg

[Gohan]

I haven't seen a single wall drop on me since over a month. *wubs his tit plate*

 

-Blee

[milesp]

We moved to a new server with a new operating system. That means there has been a change. I wasn't going to specifically mention this but maybe I will now. Radu and I discussed this, and he asked me to put up this thread to see if there would be more reports of unusual activity on the new server.

 

So the point isn't to say X player is having bad luck, or Y player is having good luck and just deal with it, the point is, are people noticing specific differences.

 

1/4 when it should be 8/10 is a measureable fact.

1/3 when it should be 3/3 is a measureable fact

99/100 when it should be 99/100 is a measureable fact.

 

That is the point. I can't go out and get the stuff to make 100 CoL's to see if it will even out in the long run, so I'm investigating to see if anyone else see's the trend. The fact of the matter is that NONE of the top crafters qualified to make Crowns had failed 3/4 since they were manuable. It just does not happen.

[RallosZek]

Erm......I really don't consider 3/100 a measurable fact.

 

Wouldn't be the first time that I fail 3 in the first 100 HE only to not fail again till the full 600 a run. And sometimes I make 17/20 WS rings then 20/20 for the next 4 batches.

 

Maybe add it up in a sheet and view it at 1k quantities. And I know that's not possible with CoLs, but then try something a little lower and without blessing or with craft pot to eliminate the level difference.

[shallara]

What he means is you CAN measure 3/100 whether fail or success, they are concrete numbers.

Success and fail rates are measurable.

 

The numbers alone say an alcher of 75 should NOT fail 2 hydro bars AND an ELE with enrich stone back to back to back.

 

The numbers alone say a potioner should NOT get 5 EMP's out of a batch of 500.

 

Or a manu-er get a modable on his first ever batch of swords.

 

These are the numbers that are being referred to.

[RallosZek]

Yes, that can happen and threads like this will 'prove' it, because you get the oddballs posting their weirdness, while the majority is silent.

 

If you're serious about researching this, then add it all up and get input not only of the abnormalities, but also of the normalities.

 

FYI: 640/641 HE @ alc 79

 

I got 5 enr stone I might turn into EFE (not sure yet). Score so far is 8/8. If I decide to do that, I'll post results.

Edited September 28, 2006 by RallosZek

[milesp]

Yes, that can happen and threads like this will 'prove' it, because you get the oddballs posting their weirdness, while the majority is silent.

 

If you're serious about researching this, then add it all up and get input not only of the abnormalities, but also of the normalities.

 

I have a brilliant idea. You previously stated how you did with SRS. That's great, it shows you seem so far to be having about normal success. You've said your peace. Now, you are not positively contributing to the thread anymore. The point of this thread is for people to post stats about their experiences since the server switch. Not debate on if you think the subject matter of this thread is relevant or not.

 

Radu himself said he was noticing some tendencies in the logs, and is watching it, as well as requesting numbers from the general EL public to make a determination if there has been a shift in the odds either for better or worse.

Edited September 28, 2006 by milesp

[Gohan]

My idea tho, is still that somehow the luck is a bit of a factor here.

 

I see only a small amount of people saying that things seem different to them. And mainly the crafters.

Personally, I've been making some things too, but honestly, I don't see any changes.

 

I'm also interested to know.. How is it that swapping data from 1 server to another changes the success/failure rates? If you just properly copy the data nothing should be changed.

 

Yes, perhaps a noob question, but I'm not that into computers atm.

 

And

 

75 / (50*2) = 75% success rate for your guildie on Hydrogenium bars. Its a 1/4 chance to fail. I don't see why its impossible to fail 2/3 Hydro bars?

Its the same formula for the ELE, 1/4 to fail it. Its very much possible to lose it.

 

And modables that you refer to, have always been said to be made by luck,lets just say its uberluck making 1 in your first batch of swords ever.

 

As for the EMPs, I once made 3 of those in 50 SRs. I don't get your point either because those were the only 3 I had on a whole lot more of SRs, they just got made shortly after eachother.

 

-Blee

[Ermabwed]

should NOT

you mean: "is very unlikely". There's no guarantee for success whatever your level is because of the probabilistic nature. Easiest solution would be if Entropy or Learner would do a statistical analysis like the ones Entropy posted in his blog a while back, just significant more and see wether there is or isn't an abnormity.

Personally I haven't noticed anything really out of place really, especially not on CoLs which is nice .

 

edit: typo

Edited September 29, 2006 by Ermabwed

[shallara]

Which is why Entropy has asked for numbers.

One player getting sudden shifts may be a fluke.

Half of EL suddenly noticing a shift one way or another is not just a fluke.

Players are simply asked to keep track of their numbers from batches, and post.

 

Yes randomness is a factor, that is the bit of code that may have been affected. The question is if the randomness has changed.

[Ghrae]

Personally I haven't noticed anything really out of place really, especially not on CoLs which is nice .

 

Have you made any COLs? If so how many? How many fails?